The Second Irish Troubles (2016-2020)

Police in riot gear face off against protesters on Falls Road, Belfast, during the height of violence in 2017

The Second Irish Troubles (2016-2020), also known as The Brexit Conflict or The Reunification War, was a period of intense sectarian violence and political upheaval in Northern Ireland, Ireland, and Great Britain that resulted in approximately 5,500 deaths and ultimately led to the Irish Reunification of 2020. The conflict was primarily triggered by complications arising from the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) and the subsequent handling of the Northern Ireland border issue by then-Prime Minister Theresa May's government.

Origins and Early Period

The origins of the Second Troubles can be traced to the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, when questions about the status of the Northern Ireland-Republic of Ireland border became a critical point of contention. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 had effectively removed physical border infrastructure between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but Brexit threatened to reimpose a hard border. Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed "backstop" solution satisfied neither unionists nor republicans, leading to increased tensions throughout 2016 and early 2017.

The situation deteriorated rapidly following the Belfast Port Riots in March 2017, when customs infrastructure construction at Belfast Harbor was met with violent protests from both loyalist and republican groups. The New Irish Republican Army (New IRA) emerged as a prominent force during this period, absorbing several smaller dissident republican groups and establishing a significant presence in both urban and rural areas.

Escalation and Violence

The conflict entered a new phase of violence following the Newry Customs Post Attack in September 2017, which resulted in the deaths of three border officials and marked the beginning of a sustained campaign against Brexit-related infrastructure. The British government's decision to deploy additional military personnel to Northern Ireland in response to the attack was met with fierce resistance from republican communities.

The Memorial Wall in Derry commemorating victims of the Second Troubles, photographed in 2022

The period between late 2017 and 2019 saw the conflict spread beyond Northern Ireland's borders, with attacks occurring in major British cities and increasing sectarian violence in Belfast, Derry, and other Northern Irish urban centers. The Manchester Shopping Centre Bombing of 2018 and the Glasgow Train Station Attack of 2019 marked significant escalations in the conflict's scope and intensity.

May Assassination and Aftermath

The assassination of Prime Minister Theresa May on March 15, 2019, during a visit to Stormont Castle in Belfast, marked a critical turning point in the conflict. The attack, carried out by members of the New IRA using a sophisticated remote-detonated explosive device, shocked both British and Irish society and led to a period of intense political crisis in the United Kingdom.

The subsequent Emergency Government formed under acting Prime Minister Michael Gove initially responded with a harsh security crackdown, implementing the controversial Northern Ireland Security Act 2019, which granted sweeping powers to security forces. However, this approach proved counterproductive, leading to increased support for republican causes among moderate Catholics and growing international pressure for a diplomatic solution.

Peace Process and Reunification

The Dublin Peace Conference of late 2019 marked the beginning of serious negotiations between all parties involved in the conflict. The conference, mediated by the European Union and the United States, produced the framework for what would become the Irish Reunification Agreement. Key aspects of the agreement included:

• A planned transition period for the integration of Northern Ireland into the Republic of Ireland

• Significant autonomy guarantees for majority-Protestant areas

• Substantial economic support packages from both the EU and UK

Irish Taoiseach Michael Martin and British Prime Minister Michael Gove sign the historic Irish Reunification Agreement, December 2020

Legacy and Impact

The Second Troubles resulted in profound changes to the political landscape of Britain and Ireland. The United Ireland formally came into being on December 31, 2020, marking the end of British rule in Northern Ireland after nearly 400 years. The conflict's death toll of approximately 5,500 people included civilians, security forces, and paramilitary members from both sides, with thousands more injured or displaced.

The period has left lasting scars on communities across Ireland and Britain, leading to the establishment of the All-Ireland Reconciliation Commission in 2021. The economic impact was similarly significant, with the cost of reconstruction and compensation estimated at over £50 billion.

The conflict has been extensively documented in media and academia, with the Brexit Violence Archive at Trinity College Dublin serving as a primary repository for materials related to the period. The events have also influenced popular culture, inspiring numerous books, films, and documentaries, including the acclaimed series "The Last Divide" and the Pulitzer Prize-winning book "Breaking Britain: The Second Troubles" by historian Sarah O'Connor.

International Reactions

The international community's response to the Second Troubles evolved significantly over the course of the conflict. Initially viewed as an internal UK matter related to Brexit, the escalating violence and humanitarian concerns drew increasing international attention and intervention. The European Union played a crucial role in mediating the final settlement, while the United States' involvement, particularly through the Boston Conference of 2020, proved instrumental in achieving the final peace agreement.

The conflict has since become a case study in how regional political decisions can trigger deep-seated historical tensions, with the UN Peace Studies Institute establishing a dedicated research program examining the relationship between economic integration, nationalism, and conflict using the Second Troubles as a primary example.