2024 United States Presidential Election: Battle of Contrasting Visions

President Mike Huckabee and Senator Kamala Harris face off during the first presidential debate at the University of Richmond Presidential Debate Center

The 2024 United States presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, was the 60th quadrennial presidential election. Incumbent Republican President Mike Huckabee and Vice President Kelly Ayotte won re-election, defeating the Democratic ticket of California Senator Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. The election marked the continuation of the post-Clinton era realignment that began with Huckabee's victory in 2020, solidifying the Republican Party's growing strength among working-class voters while Democrats maintained their coalition of urban, suburban, and minority voters.

Background

The political landscape leading to the 2024 election was shaped by the tumultuous events of the previous eight years. Hillary Clinton's victory over Ted Cruz in 2016 made her the first female president, but her administration faced significant challenges, including growing partisan division and the onset of the Global Health Crisis of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the economy and public health, combined with social unrest and questions about federal response protocols, created an opening for then-Florida Governor Mike Huckabee to defeat Clinton in her 2020 re-election bid.

President Huckabee's first term was characterized by his American Renewal Initiative, which focused on economic recovery, religious liberty protection measures, and what he termed "common-sense conservatism." His administration oversaw the implementation of the Faith and Freedom Act of 2022, which expanded religious exemptions in federal regulations, and the Working Families Tax Relief Program, which provided significant tax cuts to middle-class households.

Nominations

Republican Party

The Republican National Convention in Nashville featured a celebration of President Huckabee's first-term achievements

President Huckabee and Vice President Ayotte were essentially unopposed for the Republican nomination. The Nashville Convention became a four-day celebration of the administration's accomplishments, featuring prominent speakers from the religious conservative movement and working-class Republican leaders. The convention highlighted the Heartland Strategy, which emphasized the party's growing strength in former Democratic strongholds throughout the Midwest and rural America.

Democratic Party

The Democratic primary season featured a competitive field of candidates, with Senator Kamala Harris emerging as the frontrunner after strong performances in the New Progressive Debates. Her primary challengers included Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Governor Gavin Newsom. Harris's prosecution background and promise to be "tough on corporate crime" resonated with primary voters seeking a contrast to Huckabee's folksy populism.

The selection of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate reflected the party's strategy to recapture crucial swing states in the industrial northeast. The Democratic ticket was formally nominated at the Milwaukee Democratic Convention, where the party unveiled its American Justice and Opportunity Platform.

Campaign Dynamics

The general election campaign was marked by stark ideological contrasts and competing visions for America's future. President Huckabee emphasized his Prosperity Through Faith message, linking economic success to traditional values and religious liberty. His campaign focused on the post-pandemic economic recovery, reduced inflation rates under his administration, and the success of his Rural Renaissance Program.

Senator Harris ran on a platform of "Justice and Progress," highlighting her record as a prosecutor and promising to strengthen federal oversight of corporate practices. Her campaign emphasized the Corporate Accountability Act she had sponsored in the Senate and promised comprehensive climate change legislation through the Clean Future Initiative.

The campaign was notably influenced by several major events:

• The September Economic Summit, where both candidates presented competing economic visions

• The Faith and Values Forum in Des Moines, where religious voters questioned both candidates

• The National Security Crisis of October 2024, which tested both candidates' foreign policy credentials

Presidential Debates

The three presidential debates proved crucial in shaping voter perceptions. The first debate, moderated by the University of Richmond Presidential Debate Center, focused on domestic policy and featured sharp exchanges over religious liberty and economic policy. President Huckabee's folksy demeanor and ability to connect with viewers contrasted with Harris's more prosecutorial style.

The second debate, centered on foreign policy, saw both candidates outline their approaches to international relations, with particular focus on the Pacific Trade Alliance and relations with China. The final debate, a town hall format, allowed both candidates to interact directly with undecided voters, where Huckabee's personal touch proved particularly effective.

Election Results

President Huckabee secured re-election with 304 electoral votes to Harris's 234. The popular vote margin was narrower, with Huckabee winning 51.3% to Harris's 47.2%. The Independent Unity Party candidate received 1.5% of the vote.

Key to Huckabee's victory was his strong performance in traditional swing states and his ability to maintain the working-class coalition that propelled him to victory in 2020. The Republicans strengthened their position in Ohio, Iowa, and Florida while narrowly holding North Carolina and Georgia. Harris won Nevada and Minnesota but failed to flip crucial Midwest states that Democrats had hoped to recapture.

Analysis and Aftermath

Political analysts attributed Huckabee's victory to several factors, including the successful implementation of his first-term economic policies, strong support among religious voters, and effective messaging that combined traditional conservative values with populist economic policies. The Center for Electoral Studies noted that Huckabee's approval ratings had remained consistently above 48% throughout his first term, helped by falling inflation and rising real wages.

Harris's campaign, while historic as the first African-American woman to receive a major party's presidential nomination, struggled to counter Huckabee's incumbent advantages and personal popularity. Post-election analysis by the Democratic Strategy Group suggested that the party's message had failed to resonate with working-class voters in key swing states, despite strong support in urban areas and among young voters.

The election results reinforced the ongoing realignment in American politics, with Republicans continuing to gain ground among working-class voters while Democrats maintained their strength in urban areas and among college-educated voters. This pattern would significantly influence political strategy and policy discussions in the years following the election.

President Huckabee's second-term agenda, announced shortly after the election, focused on implementing the American Values Recovery Plan, expanding religious liberty protections, and pursuing what he termed "compassionate conservative solutions" to healthcare and immigration challenges. The election's outcome also sparked internal debates within the Democratic Party about its future direction and messaging strategy.